Editor’s Desk |
The political temperature in Jammu and Kashmir has risen sharply after Srinagar Lok Sabha MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi announced that he intends to resign from both Parliament and the National Conference on November 3, citing what he describes as an ideological rupture with the party leadership.
His decision follows a very public challenge from NC president Dr Farooq Abdullah, who asked Ruhullah to resign and seek a fresh mandate if he believed his electoral victory was based on his personal popularity rather than the party. Ruhullah has now accepted that challenge.
The obvious question is: Is Ruhullah preparing to launch a new political party or movement? And if he does, can it become a serious threat to the National Conference?
My assessment is that a new party is possible, but a new political platform may be more likely in the immediate future than a fully structured political party. And yes, such a formation could damage the NC—but the extent of that damage will depend almost entirely on whether Ruhullah can convert his personal appeal into a wider organisation.
Ruhullah is not entering this confrontation as an ordinary dissident.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, he won the Srinagar constituency with 356,866 votes, or 52.85 per cent, defeating PDP’s Waheed-ur-Rehman Para by 188,416 votes. That was a substantial margin and gave Ruhullah an independent political profile beyond the traditional NC hierarchy.
This is perhaps the strongest argument behind speculation about a new political formation.
A politician who can win more than half the votes in a parliamentary constituency cannot easily be dismissed as merely a product of party machinery.
But there is an important caveat.
A Lok Sabha constituency is not the same thing as an entire Valley, and personal popularity is not the same as an organisation.
That distinction will determine Ruhullah’s future.
Ruhullah’s central argument is ideological.
He has accused the National Conference leadership of abandoning its electoral commitment to fight for restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status, including Article 370 and 35A. He has repeatedly argued that the party made a promise to voters during elections and subsequently softened its position.
That gives him a potentially powerful political narrative:
“I remained where the party promised to stand; the party moved away.”
Whether voters agree with that argument is another matter, but politically it provides Ruhullah with a clear identity.
A new formation led by him would therefore probably not attempt to compete with the NC on every issue from day one. Instead, it could concentrate on constitutional rights, statehood, political accountability, youth aspirations and representation, presenting itself as a more uncompromising alternative to the established regional parties.
That could particularly resonate among younger voters and sections of the electorate dissatisfied with conventional party politics.
Yes—but primarily in the Kashmir Valley, and particularly in constituencies where the NC traditionally relies on a loyal political base.
The National Conference remains a major political force. In the 2024 Assembly election, it emerged as the largest party with 42 seats, while the BJP won 29 and Congress six.
That means one leader leaving the party does not automatically translate into an NC collapse.
However, Ruhullah’s challenge comes at an uncomfortable moment for the party.
The 2025 Budgam by-election provided an important warning sign. The PDP’s Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi defeated the NC candidate Aga Syed Mahmood Al-Mosavi by 4,478 votes, securing 21,576 votes. Budgam has historically been associated with the NC’s political strength, making the result particularly significant.
The lesson is simple:
The Kashmir electorate is not permanently tied to one regional party.
If another credible political platform emerges, voters can shift.
This is where the biggest challenge begins.
A successful political party requires much more than a popular face.
It needs:
- A strong organisational network
- Workers at the grassroots level
- Candidates across constituencies
- Financial resources
- Booth-level mobilisation
- A clear political programme
- Leaders from different regions and communities
- The ability to sustain itself beyond one election
Ruhullah currently has the most important first ingredient—visibility and political credibility in parts of Kashmir.
But whether he has the organisational machinery required to build a party remains untested.
This is why the proposed Srinagar by-election could become a defining political moment.
If Ruhullah contests as an independent and wins convincingly, it would give him an extraordinary political mandate to build a broader platform.
If he loses, the argument that his 2024 victory was primarily personal rather than organisational would gain strength.
In other words, the by-election could become the laboratory in which the Ruhullah experiment is tested.
The most immediate danger to the National Conference may not be that Ruhullah defeats the party everywhere.
It may be that he takes 10–20 per cent of votes from the NC in closely contested constituencies, thereby changing the outcome.
In first-past-the-post elections, a party does not need to lose half its support to lose seats.
A relatively small shift in votes can change dozens of constituencies.
If a Ruhullah-led platform attracts voters who are ideologically closer to the NC but dissatisfied with its current leadership, the NC could face a serious problem.
This is particularly relevant in urban and semi-urban Kashmir, among politically active youth and among voters who see Article 370 and restoration of statehood as central political questions.
Interestingly, a Ruhullah-led formation would not necessarily hurt only the NC.
It could also challenge the PDP, especially if it presents itself as a fresh regional alternative centred on constitutional politics.
The PDP has demonstrated that it can still win in traditional NC areas, as the Budgam by-election showed.
A new platform could therefore create a three-cornered contest in parts of Kashmir:
NC vs PDP vs Ruhullah-led formation.
That could make electoral politics considerably more unpredictable.
However, there is another possibility: the new formation could eventually cooperate with existing parties on selected issues rather than becoming a conventional rival everywhere.
Farooq Abdullah’s public challenge—effectively asking Ruhullah to resign and return to voters—may have unintentionally given the dissident MP an opportunity.
Before the challenge, Ruhullah was an outspoken dissident within the NC.
After accepting it, he can potentially present himself as a politician willing to risk his parliamentary position for his political principles.
That is a powerful narrative in electoral politics.
Ruhullah has already said he intends to formally submit his resignation on November 3 and has indicated that he may contest the resulting by-election as an independent after consulting people.
The symbolism of choosing his father’s death anniversary to formally announce the decision is also politically significant, although the real test will come at the ballot box.
I believe it is too early to say definitively that Ruhullah will immediately float a new political party.
A more logical political strategy could be to first build a movement or broad political platform, contest the Srinagar by-election, measure public support and then decide whether a formal party is viable.
That would reduce the risk.
If he wins, he has a mandate.
If he attracts influential political figures, civil society voices, youth leaders and grassroots workers, he has an organisation.
If the platform performs well beyond Srinagar, he has evidence of a Valley-wide constituency.
Only then would a full-fledged political party make strategic sense.
Three things.
First, leadership beyond Ruhullah.
If prominent political figures, former legislators, young leaders and grassroots workers join him, the initiative could quickly acquire organisational weight.
Second, a broader agenda.
If the platform is seen only as an Article 370 campaign, its electoral ceiling may remain limited. If it combines constitutional issues with employment, education, development, tourism, corruption, governance and youth concerns, its appeal could become much wider.
Third, geographical expansion.
Ruhullah’s political base is strongest in parts of central Kashmir. To become a genuine Valley-wide force, he would need support in north and south Kashmir as well.
It would be a mistake to write the National Conference’s political obituary.
The party has a long organisational history, an established cadre, a recognisable symbol, experienced leaders and a government structure.
It also retains a substantial electoral base.
Moreover, politics in Jammu and Kashmir has historically shown that personal popularity can rise quickly but organisational politics often determines long-term survival.
The NC’s challenge, therefore, is not simply Ruhullah.
Its bigger challenge is whether it can retain ideological credibility among voters who supported it because they expected a particular political direction.
If the party successfully convinces its supporters that its present strategy is realistic and effective, Ruhullah’s challenge could remain limited.
If it fails to do so, his rebellion could become the beginning of a larger political realignment.
Aga Ruhullah is standing at a politically important crossroads.
He has electoral credibility, a clear ideological position and growing visibility. What he does not yet demonstrably possess is a Valley-wide political organisation.
That is why the Srinagar by-election, if it takes place, could be more important than the resignation itself.
A convincing Ruhullah victory would dramatically strengthen the argument that his appeal extends beyond the NC brand.
A narrow victory would still establish him as a formidable political player.
A defeat, however, would force a reassessment of whether his support is primarily personal or whether it can be translated into an independent political organisation.
For the National Conference, the danger is real—but it is not yet existential.
The party could lose votes, seats and political space if Ruhullah succeeds in becoming the focal point of anti-establishment sentiment within the Valley. But whether that develops into a major political earthquake will depend on organisation, leadership, alliances and the ability to translate ideological anger into an electoral programme.
The coming months may therefore produce one of the most interesting political experiments in post-2019 Jammu and Kashmir.
Aga Ruhullah may not simply be leaving the National Conference. He may be testing whether there is enough political space in Kashmir for a new regional voice.
And if that experiment succeeds, the question will no longer be “Will Ruhullah hurt the National Conference?”
It will be:
“How much of Kashmir’s regional political space can the National Conference afford to lose?”
